Simplifying this post since it didn't seem to generate any interest.
After seeing the real jobs numbers(revised ~800,000 jobs lower, no new jobs to US citizens who are the ones fixing our cars), what is the real future for the automotive service market?
I've worked with quite a few shops over the past few years.
My observations, simplified:
-Independent owners are swamped between trying to find and retain people who want to work and dealing with the never ending red tape involved with owning a shop.
-"Old Timer" mechanics want to do the simple straightforward stuff (brakes/suspensions/etc) and most show little interest in continuous learning to stay relevant for newer vehicles with highly integrated electronics everywhere.
-The few mechanics in a shop who want to work to maintain relevancy are not afforded the time, they are swamped with all of the complex/difficult repairs, and the cost of maintaining relevancy both in educational cost and new tools cost is difficult to bear.
-Those who do not fall into the above two categories have little motivation to learn anything, and simply want to be told what to do and swap parts - The turnover rate on this type of technician (if you can even call them that) continues to rise.
-Every OEM is making it harder each year for independent shops to provide full service; From subscription fees to proprietary service operations reserved only for authorized dealers. Add on top of this the difficulty of learning the ins and outs of each OEM service solution for programming modules/etc..
Newer vehicle failures are reaching magnitudes of severity that are quite frequently sending them to the dealer simply because the independent shop is not equipped to deal with the problem, or does not have the expertise to do so. Think: Electrical modules which used to last 20+ years now failing after 10 years, and you need OEM service software to program and configure the replacement unit. A lot of shops just are not able to do this due to problems mentioned above.
Now we have a rising number of IED's, also known as "electric vehicles", which wise shop owners do not want anywhere near their shop due to the environmental and safety hazards. If the broken rechargeable car burns down, you lose everything; Insurance is irrelevant because by the time you rebuild your shop, your good techs will be working elsewhere. The fed is pushing to try and make these IED's the majority vehicle (unlikely as they do not meet the needs of a majority of NA drivers) and as the number of these vehicles increases, the number of vehicles going to independent shops decreases.
In my location, things just do not look good for the future of the aftermarket service industry. Doing normal maintenance on cars from the era of quality, think early 2010's and before depending on manufacturer, will only take you so far. More and more people are buying this new disposable/IED trash.
What is the aftermarket service industry going to look like 10 years from now? I see a lot of shops going under. Curious as to what others think based on their experience. I think the massive surge in people wishing to repair their old vehicles instead of buying the new disposable cars will carry things on for a while, but that is not going to last forever, and I put that timeline at no more than 10 years from now when more than half of the independent shops we see now will no longer exist. It is very concerning.
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