I had the same exact issue and dash warning, and was worried it was the ballast because of the work and price involved; but after reading up on here about it I went with bulbs first. I bought new bulbs and replaced the one with complete success in resolution of the issue. I only changed the one to verify it was a bulb issue first (by that time the bulb would stop flickering and kicking warning when on).
Added unsolicited lil tidbit: The bulb thankfully doesn't require the bumper to come off and can be done in about an hour, but isn't cakewalk as it takes some patience to get it in the housing, locked down, and plugged in. Be gentle and patient and it will go. Also, don't try to be fast by not removing the power steering reserv. and expansion tank reserv. out of the way (just unbolt, dont undo hoses). Not to mention the harness bracket (driver side); as well as the airbox assy on the pass side <- oh and make sure car is cool or the hoses there will burn the sh&% out of your hand.. that little bit of extra time to have the room pays off if you do decide on the bulbs. trust me.
FWIW after the change, I could easily see how much brighter and "crisper" the new bulb output was so I also changed out the passenger side (good to change both at same time anyhow) and been good since. Additionally, I was getting a headlight dipped error on occasion as well and haven't since the change. That was last winter so it was definitely the bulb, thankfully. But with respect to the "winter"...You know, because nothing ever breaks during the summer and when you are off work
lol.
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