I don't think you will find any data on the frequency or failure time for these parts yet...just the experience of a small number who have posted here. Here are my thoughts. If you have the old tensioner, it should be a priority repair, IMO. It seems like it's more of a question of when, not if it will fail. From the pic's you can see the problem component in the tensioner is a small piece of stamped metal worth pennies. The consequences of failure are severe however, and can be far worse than Allowencer experienced with bent valves, damaged pistons, etc.
This is only my 2nd vehicle with a chain. I've done tensioners and belts a number of times but never had to replace a chain yet. That doesn't mean my A4 won't need a chain however. My reading has shown that chain does wear over time, usually with the link pin connections enlarging, causing the chain to lengthen. As some point this may cause some issues with the engine not running as well as it should. And it could get bad enough to do more damage but I don't any specifics for our car. It's also possible for a chain to break, but this seems uncommon. The revised chain appears to be more robust. So, it would probably make sense to do the chain while the front is apart, particularly if the mileage is high.
I had the tensioner done with the stage2 fix and in retrospect wish I had also done the chain.
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