Quick update:
I did this replacement last week, putting the lock carrier into service mode. It took about 2.5 hours start to finish... 30 minutes on each end to get the car into service position, and then 1.5 hours to carefully replace the TB tensioner. There is plenty of room. I considered undoing the motor/trans/snub mounts but ultimately that meant jacking up the car, and I didn't want to do that haha. I've had the front end off so many times I knew the process and it's easy.
Anyway, thanks to everyone and particularly Seerlah who convinced me to not even attempt to do this replacement without getting more space. I have no idea how he managed to do this without more room... it was tight even with the extra two inches that the service position gets you!
So, a few pics and tips: I tried to zip tie the belt in place to keep it snug, but actually at TDC the tension from the cams and the crank sprocket actually keeps the belt tight on the business side (the drivers side that actually times the motor), so the zip ties were unnecessary. I also jammed a few shop towels down into the crank sprocket area just in case I dropped a bolt. Finally, when reinstalling the new tensioner, line up the bottom first because it sort of hooks over the edge of the TB cover, then install the top bolt first, then the bottom one. If you dont get the bottom hooked correctly when you put in the top bolt, you can shift it into alignment, you have to start over. Also, you need to remove the serp tensioner to get the middle TB cover off, plus it gives you a lot more room to work, so just do that first, it's only three bolts anyways.
service mode:
plenty of room.
Unnecessary zip ties
done!
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