By Eric Mayne, The Detroit News
The auto industry's number is almost up.
The 17-digit codes that identify the origin, make, model and attributes of cars, trucks, buses — even trailers — worldwide will be exhausted by the end of the decade.
And like an odometer that returns to zero and starts over again, a Vehicle Identification Number — or VIN — could be duplicated.
Experts say duplicated VINs would cause havoc for repair shops, state license offices, insurance agencies, law enforcement and other groups that use VINs to process warranty claims, investigate accident claims and recover stolen vehicles.
"We've been brainwashing law enforcement and the insurance community and virtually everybody that a VIN is like DNA — there's one for any one vehicle," said Ed Sparkman, spokesman for the Chicago-based National Insurance Crime Bureau.
At the root of the impending shortage is the explosion of vehicle production in recent decades. Automakers build 60 million cars and trucks every year and each one needs a unique VIN in the same way a newborn is given a Social Security number. And that doesn't count heavy trucks, motorcycles and other vehicles that require VINs.
The Society of Automotive Engineers, which established the existing VIN system in 1981 and expected it to last 30 years, has formed a committee to address the impending shortage.
One potential fix: Poach VINs assigned to smaller countries such as Botswana, which don't mass-produce vehicles.
Unlike telephone companies, which simply created new area codes to cope with a surge in households, cell phones and fax machines, the committee is not recommending longer VINs — even though 18- or 19-character codes would not repeat for 100 years.
Longer codes would require a major overhaul of computer systems that would dwarf the challenges and expenses spawned by the Y2K computer dilemma, said Dave Proefke, chairman of the committee.
"The scope of the logistical changes and the monetary impact are just astronomical," said Proefke, a technical engineer for vehicle security at General Motors (GM).
At smaller manufacturers, the change would cost tens of millions of dollars, Proefke said.
"For GM, it would mean a significant change for every assembly center we have, all our engineering centers, all our processing centers," he said.
To overcome the shortage, SAE is taking a close look at the first three digits of a VIN — known separately as the World Manufacturer Identifier. It consists of numbers and letters — excluding I, O, Q, U and Z — because they can be mistaken for numbers or another letter.
By international agreement, a WMI is assigned according to region. Initially, the United States had all WMI codes that started with the number 1.
"We were assuming we were always going to be 1, originally," Proefke said. "Now we're 1, 4 and 5. And we don't have that many left of 5."
Of 1,056 WMI codes available to U.S. manufacturers, 594 remain, according to SAE.
One solution that will be considered when the committee votes on a final recommendation in September or October is to reclaim WMI codes that are going unused in other regions.
More than two dozen countries, from Armenia to Zimbabwe, have up to 288 WMI codes each. All are dormant.
The group may also reclaim WMI codes from U.S. trailer, motorcycle and other manufacturers no longer in business. SAE doesn't have a precise count, but such defunct companies could be the source of enough WMI codes to supplement another 30 years of use, said Steve Ezar, manager of government and industry standardization at SAE.
Another possible solution: the WMI code could be revamped so that the third digit, which now indicates brand, will be freed up to denote different information.
For example, a VIN beginning with 5G1 now describes a Chevrolet built in the United States, while 5G2 identifies a Pontiac.
But in the future, 5G1 could be used to cover all GM products, freeing 5G2 for — perhaps — another manufacturer.
Duplication could still occur, but the difference between a 30-year-old vehicle and a new one should help avoid any confusion, experts say.
"It's common sense," said Val Vitols, executive director of Michigan's Automotive Theft Prevention Authority.
Even now, on rare occasions, the Secretary of State's office encounters duplication, spokeswoman Kelly Chesney said. Classic cars are sometimes allowed to use old license plates, she said.
"Every once in a while (those plate numbers) show up in a configuration in a new plate," Chesney said. "But we know instantly that this is a car of a certain age and make."
Despite the complexity of the problem, SAE officials are confident they can iron out the problem.
"In reality, it's not going to be the big issue that we think it is," said Sparkman, a former Michigan police officer. "It's sort of like the Y2K thing."
*USAToday
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