along with a temp drop of 40F the humidity will drop and the atm P increase...for typical conditons that will account for 10% or so...40HP
I don't buy the 60HP delta, and I don't consider the vagcom torque accurate...it is map based on rpm/temp/throttle/fuel/etc., NOT measured, ie, mean eff cylinder pressure...
of course it will match the factory rating curve...
also the timing differences are not an 'issue' but a normal operating parameter, it's adjusted to optimize combustion, so if it's warmer/less dense/etc., it will have a different set-point...and limit...
the question is: is 109 at 72F 420 HP or is 113 at 40F 420 HP
imo, the 109 at 72F for a ~4150 lb car (3980 + driver) with high awd losses is the 420 (rated)